I didn’t have much chance to blog the last couple months. My resolution is to post more frequently this year.

Where will the economy take us this year? That’s the million dollar question. The GNP grew to 5.5%. Manufactures are restocking shelves. Some sectors of the economy are showing signs of life. That’s the good news. Signs of a recovery, but does it have traction? The national debt is approaching $1.3 Trillion. Sales of existing homes are at a 40 year low. Less than 5% of the millions of loan modification requests are getting approved and completed. Banks are taking an equally hard line on short sales. The employment market, particularly where real jobs are needed, is looking as bleak as the housing market with six job seekers for every opening. Locally we have years of office and retail space inventory. Retail real estate rents are almost half of what they were in 2007. You can lease first class retail strip center space for $18.00 PSF; these are store rooms that were pro forma $30.00 PSF space a few short years ago. Secondary space is more dismal. There are some deals being made, but few are bankable leases. The books of developers with extensions on 2007 or earlier construction loans are not looking too good. And a lot of the lenders that put them into those loans are gone; and for good reason. Then there is the $800 Billion of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities that are scheduled into default over the next three to four years. If CMBS defaults start to spike at the same time that the next wave of Alt-A defaults are scheduled to renew their upward trajectory, which could be as early as spring, it could set our recovery back a bit. Clearly there will be a lot of opportunity for those who can carve out a niche in these trends. A lot of displaced professionals are starting new businesses and buying franchises. Many of them will prosper and add value to our economy.

Last night the Food Channel has a special show on potatoes. Apparently world-wide consumption of potatoes is at an all time high. At the same time, the Travel Channel had a special on super yachts. Same thing, orders for new super yachts is at an all time high. I don’t watch a lot of TV, but I did find that programming juxtaposition interesting.

It will be in interesting year to say the least.